Click image to go to this article on LinkedIn

🚧 Why do so many project schedules fall apart?
Because we treat uncertainty like an afterthought.

In capital and IT projects, task duration estimates are the quiet killers of timelines and budgets. Overestimate, and you waste time. Underestimate, and you invite chaos.

That’s why I’ve been working on a smarter way to estimate: risk banding + beta distributions.

✅ Simplify three-point estimating
✅ Capture nonlinear uncertainty
✅ Run Monte Carlo simulations with real-world confidence
✅ Adjust with as few as five risk levels for speed

In this new piece, I break down:

- Why traditional methods like PERT and Triangle fall short
- How a Fibonacci-inspired rubric makes estimating faster and more accurate
- What happens to the critical path when you choose different estimating methods

📈 Whether you manage capital projects or major IT rollouts, this framework helps your team plan better—and perform better.

How does your team estimate task durations? Click on the image above to read the piece on LinkedIn and comment! I'd love to hear what’s working (or not) for you.